HOOD · how this site works

Under the hood

Every number on this site comes from a public source, refreshes on a schedule, and is checked before it goes live. Nothing on this page is typed by hand: each figure below is read from the same files the rest of the site serves, the moment you open it.

By the numbers

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How a number gets to your screen

1 · SourcesPublic feeds only: SEC EDGAR, FRED, Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, Kalshi, ESPN, MLB Stats API, MoneyPuck, nflverse, Deezer, Last.fm.

2 · Scheduled jobsGitHub Actions fetch on a timetable: markets hourly in trading hours, sports hourly while games are on, filings daily, 13F quarterly.

3 · Publishing gateEvery file is checked before it is saved: prices in sane ranges, odds that add to 100%, records that add up. A failing file is held back.

4 · EdgeFiles are served from Cloudflare's network. A small server answers live requests: any US ticker, live scoreboards, the music leaderboard.

5 · Your browserPages draw charts, odds and projections from those files. Times show in your own time zone.

No paid data, no scraping of pages whose terms forbid it, and no betting lines shown anywhere. Market prices are delayed about 15 minutes. Nothing here is investment advice.

Is the sports model any good?

The house model rates every team from game results alone, then projects each game before it starts. Every pick is saved before kickoff and graded after the final; none is back-filled. This is the live record so far.

Calibration: when the model gave a team a given chance, how often that team actually won. A well-calibrated model sits on the diagonal. Small buckets are noisy.

Settings are fit on past seasons and kept only if they beat the simple version on later seasons the fit never saw. "Better than simple" is how much lower the prediction error (log loss) was on those unseen seasons than a plain rating with no tuning.
League	Fit on	Games	Better than simple

Full track record · How the model works

Sources and what they feed

Source	Used for	Refresh
SEC EDGAR	Quarterly financials (XBRL), insider Form 4s, 8-Ks, 13D/G, quarterly 13F holdings, company fundamentals for the screener	daily · quarterly
Yahoo Finance	Delayed prices, charts and futures; headline feeds	hourly, trading hours
FRED (St. Louis Fed)	Inflation, jobs, growth, rates and spreads on the macro page	daily
U.S. Treasury	Yield curve	daily
Nasdaq	Earnings and IPO calendars	daily
Kalshi	Prediction-market odds on Fed and inflation outcomes	hourly
iShares, Wikipedia	Index membership lists (S&P 500/400/600, Russell)	daily
ESPN public API	Scores, schedules, standings, injuries, box scores	live · hourly
MLB Stats API	Probable starting pitchers and pitching lines	daily in season
MoneyPuck	NHL expected goals	daily in season
nflverse	NFL results back to 1999 and closing lines (used only to set the home edge and test the model)	seasonal
Deezer · Last.fm · MusicBrainz	Song previews, artist catalog and tags, release dates and countries	on play · weekly

What's new

Loading recent changes…

The latest changes to the site itself, read from its public code history. Automatic data refreshes are left out.